The hottest industrial policy cannot be implemente

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The industrial policy cannot be implemented, and the dream of China's tire industry transformation is broken.

since this year, the price of natural rubber has shown a downward trend, but the efficiency of tire enterprises is getting worse and worse. Industry insiders explained that this is because the price of tires is also falling. As long as one company cuts prices, other companies must follow suit. When raw materials go up, whoever goes up first will die first; When raw materials fall, whoever lowers the price will be unlucky

in sharp contrast, multinational companies' tire products have repeatedly raised prices in overseas markets, while accelerating the expansion of tire production capacity in China and seizing the Chinese market. It is predicted that China is expected to become the world's largest tire market in 2014, following its promotion to the world's largest auto production and marketing country

industry analysis points out that since the implementation of the tire industry policy last year, China's tire industry has still operated on the original track drive, and the product quality, brand, technology, process, market structure, enterprise scale and so on have almost completely lagged behind multinational companies, and the transformation and upgrading seem to stay on the slogan

helpless prices fell

industry data show that since this year, domestic natural rubber prices have shown a trend of high volatility and decline. The average price of natural rubber in the first quarter was 37000 yuan/ton; The average price in the second quarter was 3 60000 yuan/ton; The price changed greatly in the third quarter. The average price in the first two months was 34000 yuan/ton, but it has fallen rapidly since September and has fallen to 28000 yuan/ton at present

the benefits of domestic tire enterprises have not improved as a result. According to wind data statistics, the total operating income of the seven tire companies in Shenwan industry classification increased month on month in the second quarter and the third quarter after excluding the Sailun shares lacking historical data, but the total operating profit and the total net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company did not change synchronously, and the situation of increasing income without increasing profit or increasing income without reducing profit was common. 7.1.3 type inspection shall be carried out when the product has one of the following conditions

when explaining the decline in performance, many companies take the high price of raw materials as an important reason. Combined with the downward trend of natural rubber prices in the same period, this explanation is not reasonable, at least not detailed enough. Because when the price of raw materials rises, if the price of tires also rises, the efficiency of enterprises may not become worse; When the price of raw materials falls, if the tire price remains unchanged, the enterprise's efficiency should be better

insiders said that by making the reading between 10% and 90% of the full scale, the growth rate of automobile sales slowed down, the downstream demand was not strong, and the tire price could not stand, so it could only fall. Tire price reduction is for promotion. As long as the product price of one company decreases, the product price of other companies must be adjusted at the same time, otherwise it means the loss of market share

it is understood that at the beginning of June, domestic tire manufacturers held a meeting and agreed not to reduce prices. The reason is that the cost of raw materials has been high in the early stage, and the whole industry is losing money. The stable price of products after the price reduction of raw materials can just make up for the losses in the early stage to a certain extent

however, this unwritten agreement has not been effectively implemented. Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber took the lead in reducing prices, and then many tire manufacturers followed up. This wave of price reduction is reflected in disguised form through "rebate". The minimum margin of "rebate" from tire manufacturers to dealers is 5%-6%, and the maximum is 15%. In September, the price of natural rubber plummeted, and insiders said that a new round of product price reduction had begun

in addition to the fact that the decline of product prices with raw materials has made it difficult for tire enterprises to improve their efficiency, the relevant person of the China Rubber Industry Association also said that some tire enterprises were optimistic about the price trend of natural rubber at the beginning of the year and accumulated a large amount of natural rubber. Now the price of natural rubber is falling, and the asset impairment loss caused by the decline in inventory makes tire enterprises face greater difficulties

struggling to survive in the cracks

in the view of domestic tire enterprises, the weak ability to transfer costs is a major problem faced by the industry, and the key reason is that the demand is not strong. If the demand is as good as in 2009, enterprises can fully abide by the agreement not to reduce prices. However, the real situation is far more than that

the so-called weak demand is another scenario in the eyes of foreign brands. Cao Kechang, global vice president of Cooper Tire and general manager of Asia Pacific region, publicly said this year that China may replace the United States and become the world's largest consumer of car tires in 2014. The major multinational tire enterprises have reached a consensus on this

according to the data, foreign tire companies have expanded rapidly in China in recent years, and foreign brands have occupied the leading position in China's tire market. 50% of local state-owned key tire enterprises have been merged by foreign capital, and more than 80% of the domestic radial tire market share has been occupied by foreign tire manufacturers

foreign tire enterprises continue to expand production capacity in China. It is understood that the joint venture factory established by Pirelli and Yanzhou Lutong Tire Co., Ltd. will invest 300million euros in the next three years, with an annual production capacity of 10million sets of car tires and 100000 tons of steel cord after reaching the production capacity. It is expected that the annual sales revenue will reach 10billion yuan. GUPT tires will be fully opened to the Chinese market from 2012, and car tires will be used to meet the needs of the Chinese market as much as possible. In addition, both continental Germany and Bridgestone Japan plan to expand tire production capacity in China

in fact, the global tire production capacity is expanding rapidly due to the overweight investment of major global brands. Data show that since this year, the global tire industry has invested a total of US $9.7 billion, setting a new record. At least 16 tire factories (excluding China) will be built in the global tire industry, increasing the production capacity by 370000 pieces/day, of which 325000 pieces/day are passenger and SUV tires. The investment is mainly concentrated in the Asia Pacific region, accounting for about 2/3 of the total, of which the investment in China is more than 3.5 billion US dollars

Chinese tire enterprises are obviously in a weak position in the competition in the domestic market, and the situation encountered in overseas markets is not good. The head of a listed company complained that China's tire industry has become one of the industries that suffer the most frequent and frequent anti-dumping in international trade. Tire exports are basically unprofitable, but they also frequently encounter anti-dumping, and the domestic market competition is intensified after the products are transferred from exports to domestic sales

industrial policy is challenged

when judging the future trend of China's tire industry, a securities firm researcher pessimistically said that regardless of the rise and fall of raw material prices, the tire industry will be in a low profit operation for a long time

when looking for the reasons for the industry's difficulties, the researcher pointed out that the characteristics of the tire industry that about 80% of its products are sold to the replacement tire market determine that companies in the industry cannot accept orders in advance, and can only make production plans based on their own judgment of the market. The mode of selling first and after production makes it impossible for enterprises to effectively pass on cost pressure when the price of natural rubber rises, and they dare not increase inventory significantly when the price of natural rubber falls

some people in the industry point to the fierce market competition, raw material prices, anti-dumping and other reasons, but rarely mention the problems of the industry itself. The person in charge of the aforementioned listed company frankly said that the production of the original matching tires needs to be strictly certified by the vehicle manufacturer, which is relatively difficult. In addition, the tires produced by Chinese enterprises are high-quality goods, just like those sold by small stalls. They can't be compared with the products of multinational companies at all, and they are far inferior in brand and quality. Therefore, as replacement tires, they can only take the low price route

the tire industry policy issued in September 2010 proposed that "through mergers and acquisitions, optimizing the layout, controlling the total amount, eliminating backward, technological transformation, energy conservation and emission reduction and other measures, we should actively promote the adjustment of the tire industry structure to achieve from large to strong", "Encourage tire manufacturers to improve their independent R & D capabilities, increase R & D investment, carry out technological innovation, implement brand strategy, improve product technology and improve the core competitiveness of enterprises"

compared with policy objectives, Chinese tire enterprises have a long way to go. However, how to achieve this goal, the enterprise is very confused. Industry analysts pointed out that it should be a good thing for China to become the world's largest tire market, but it has brought a disaster to Chinese tire enterprises. Due to the large-scale entry of multinational companies, Chinese tire enterprises are actually facing a shrinking market

the release and implementation of the tire industry policy should have been a good thing, but it did not change the current situation of the domestic tire industry. Due to the disordered management of the industry, industrial policies are in vain, and many measures have not been effectively implemented. It is difficult for enterprises busy with price competition to really pay attention to R & D. If the industry is still on the old road, "from big to strong" can only stay at the level of desire

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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